The challenges that we will face in a pandemic will be vastly different from other response situations. An influenza pandemic is likely to occur almost simultaneously across countries and communities. It will demand that every aspect of our communities be self-sufficient, able to deal with the outbreak of illness should it hit. Political leaders, employers, school leaders, healthcare leaders, faith-based and community organizations, families and the media must all be informed, engaged and actively involved.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,
March 13, 2006

Avian Flu
The threat of a pandemic is nothing new. In the past few years we’ve heard of monkey pox, SARS and West Nile Virus. Why is the threat of an Avian Flu pandemic different?

In terms of human history, pandemics happen rather frequently. Major influenza pandemics were recorded in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed an estimated 20 – 50 million people worldwide. Infectious disease experts think the world is “due” for another major outbreak.

The current virus that is causing the most concern is the avian or bird flu. It is caused by Influenza A viruses that occur naturally among birds. A type of avian flu, known as H5N1 is of most concern. As of March 8, 2006, H5N1 has been detected in 37 countries on three continents and has infected 175 people, 96 of which have died.

Currently, there are no known cases of H5N1 being transmitted from human to human. Should it evolve, however, it could become a pandemic. While the probability that H5N1 can mutate into a pandemic is still relatively low when compared to other risks an organization may face, its impact could be huge.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has speculated that between two and 7.4 million deaths could occur worldwide. In addition, if H5N1, (or some other disease) was to reach pandemic status, it could cause significant disruptions to businesses and organizations worldwide. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that H5N1 could cause a “sharp but only temporary decline,” in the world economy. The IMF further advised businesses to step up their continuity planning in the face of this threat.

What Planners Need to Know
Pandemic planning is unlike planning for natural disasters or other disruptions. There will be no physical damage to operations or facilities; the damage will most likely manifest itself in high levels of absenteeism. Also, the disruption will not be over and done with quickly. Pandemics usually come in waves. Each wave lasts six to eight weeks and subsequent waves gain in intensity. Organizations could experience two or three waves of the pandemic that span the majority of a year.

The major issue organizations will have to deal with is unavailability of key personnel. The employees may be deceased, sick, caring for a sick relative or simply afraid to come to work due to the possibility of coming in contact with people who may be contagious. Organizations will have to consider alternates and cross-training of personnel, teleworking procedures and revising and clarifying human resource procedures regarding absenteeism and potential travel and meeting restrictions.

Secondly, organizations need to be concerned about suppliers who may be decimated by absenteeism for the same reasons as noted above. Alternate suppliers and work-around procedures should be considered in the planning process.

Along these same lines, the organization should stockpile cleaning supplies. This will ensure that if an employee or visitor becomes ill, the facilities can be sterilized quickly to mitigate the spread of the disease. Planners should also identify several cleaning services to sanitize facilities if needed.

Other materials that may need to be stockpiled include food, drinking water, cots, masks and surgical gloves. Should an organization come under quarantine, either by local health officials or through voluntary isolation, planners need to have a process in place to feed and house employees.

Finally, and most importantly, communications is crucial. Planners need to provide personnel with information regarding the status of the plan. For example, WHO has identified six phases of a pandemic. H5N1 is now in phase 3. Planners should build plans with triggers according to the WHO phases. If the situation changes and WHO updates the status of H5N1, planners should communicate any new information to employees and any tasks the contact is expected to perform in lieu of the new information.

For more information on pandemic response planning, visit www.pandemicflu.gov. There you will find updated information on H5N1, checklists for business pandemic influenza planning and additional resources.